With the recent surprise escalation of load shedding to stage 6 – announced at a mere 30 minutes’ notice, and until further notice – yet another record has been broken in the spectacular demise of Eskom, and at the expense of the country, its residents and businesses, and at a time when they can least afford it.
What is seen at the end of each year on the graph above, is that there has been increasing jumps in the total amount of GWh shed each year up to 2021. What is alarming is that this graph measures up to the end of September and the amount of load shedding represented in 2022 is already more than double the total of 2021 . It is possible that by the end of 2022, we will see an overall increase of 150% from 2021, without the trend slowing down.
There is almost no new stable generation capacity coming online within the next 3 years that can provide consistent electricity generation during the morning and evening peak-demand periods. What is apparent is that there is not much thought nor budget allocated to providing power to cover the morning and evening peak demand, with only 5% allocated to battery storage. Looking at the typical energy use pattern throughout the day, overlaid with solar production below, it is clear that solar energy is generated during the middle of the day, when the sun is shining most.
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