According to Borain, the governing African National Congress has always been the dominant political party, with an outright majority that makes it easy to predict where policy direction would go long before it even makes its way to parliament to be voted on.
“The ANC tends to ‘talk left but walk right’. The party would leak, suggest or otherwise let it be known that it might embark on a radical shift in policy. After the crisis, the ANC would settle on levels that were milder and acceptable to investors,” he said. The party slipped to an unprecedented 45.06% of the poll in the local elections, which Borain said presages a time when predicting policy changes in South Africa will require more than simply following ANC and alliance policy debates.
In 2004, the ANC won 279 of 400 seats in the national assembly with 69.39% of the vote. It could have easily achieved the required two-thirds majority on its own in the national and provincial elections. Between the 2021 local elections and the 2024 national elections, the ANC needs to navigate its conference in December, where it will elect leadership to take it through to the next election.
However, for Ramaphosa and the ANC to recover from the setbacks of the second half of 2021, growth must be evident, he said.
VoetsekANC
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