By Jessika Bohlmann, Helene Maisonnave, Margaret Chitiga-Mabugu, Martin Henseler and Ramos Emmanuel Mabugu.
The country’s economy wasn’t in great shape even before the lockdown. It was hit hard by the global financial crisis in 2008, recording average growth just above 2% between 2008 and 2012. And now the National Treasury has forecast that the economy will contract by 7.8% in 2020 due to Covid-19 measures.
This article focuses on providing results from applied economic analysis on the sectoral winners and losers during the pandemic. We also identify the people who have been affected the most and evaluate the South African government’s policy response to minimise its effects. The simulation exercise showed that the sectors and workers that were most affected by the Covid-19 pandemic were the mining/mineral sectors, the construction sector, the transport sector and most of the services sectors such as retail trade and accommodation.
Lower GDP growth and increasing unemployment invariably translate to rising unemployment and poverty rates. When extending the analysis to poverty, the modelling results show some modest increase in poverty, increasing by 2.5 percentage points. It is important to note that, given the paucity of information on the ongoing pandemic, results of this and any modelling exercises will be shrouded by uncertainty. Hence the directions and intensity of changes must be emphasised.The most interesting aspect of our findings from a policy intervention point of view is that the decline in employment and poverty is not uniform across skill levels and gender.
Greatest trader of all time LisaTeddy12 I never believe it until I experience it. For a start I deposited a little capital to test the water, in 1 week I got a return.....her diligence and honesty is undeniable LisaTeddy12
Personally I think some of the policies implemented were just to make believe that govt was doing something when infact they backfired badly. Case in point the senseless alcohol ban.....the 3rd one at that
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