Mining and manufacturing data for May show that conditions remain subdued, but activity picked up in second quarter after a dismal firstEvidence is mounting that SA’s economy experienced a modest recovery in the second quarter of 2019, with mining and manufacturing data for May providing some hope that SA escaped a recession in the three months to end May.
Mining production rose 3% in May compared with April, Statistics SA said on Thursday, beating Bloomberg’s 0.3% forecast. Higher iron ore and platinum group metal prices made this picture rosier, with the value of mineral sales rising 10.7% year on year in May, led by iron ore, which surged 68.7%. Platinum group metals sales rose 37.6%.production rose by 2.2% quarter on quarter for the three months ended in May due to a 4.3% upturn in coal production, said FNB economist Jared Sullivan.
The latest high-frequency statistics suggest that the economy probably returned to modest growth in the second quarter, off the first quarter’s very low base, said Nedbank Group economic unit economists Nicky Weimar and Dennis Dykes in a note.Year on year, manufacturing — which contributes 13% of GDP — grew 1% in May, its lowest growth rate in three months.
The pace of decline for mining has slowed somewhat, considering a marked 8% year-on-year drop in February, said Investec economist Lara Hodes.
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