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“The operating hypothesis is that the most acute direct cause of this negative outlook is unemployment, particularly black unemployment, which has roughly doubled in the BEE era since 2008.”has almost doubled on the official definition from roughly 3.6 million to seven million. Using the expanded definition, including discouraged work seekers, black unemployment almost doubled from 5.4 million to 10.7 million between 2009 and 2022.
These costs are not only financial, they include time delays in concluding kick-back deals and the reduced quality of the final product, if it is delivered, Van den Heever added. “VAT is a price increase — theoretically targeting value added only — but not necessarily, reducing final consumption expenditure and, with it, GDP.
“Domestic savings are not directed to domestic investment, as political patronage is sabotaging so much of the economy. No country can withstand this for very long. Well, it can survive — but you subsist as a Zimbabwe or a Somalia.”
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