Without sending credible signals that the evident corruption will be dealt with, it is extremely difficult to attract the kind of investment required to address all the other problems that the president highlighted. Kicking that can down the road to June may prove too late. In the meanwhile, serious National Prosecuting Authority capacity needs to be built up to execute on the accountability promise.
The other empirical reality is that the state of the economy is dire. The president referenced it, but did not directly mention the UNU-Wider working paper lead-authored by Ricardo Hausmann and released shortly before the Sona. For as long as unemployment continues to climb, private sector investment falls, and the public sector wage bill far exceeds personal income tax revenue, the state is in a precarious position.
In conclusion, the risk is that we are in scenario two, where the actual predation threat outweighs the empirical ability of the producer network to stand firm and attract the required investment. The fragile coalition of those committed to good governance therefore has to stand firmer than ever and do everything possible to minimise the predation threat while strengthening the perception that predators will credibly soon be dressed in orange overalls.
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