Poll positioning

South Africa heads to the polls this month for a national general election. It is one of several notable elections worldwide. The stakes are particularly high locally, as it is the first time since the dawn of democracy in 1994 that a coalition government at the national level seems the most likely outcome.

It should, therefore, retain the key cabinet positions and not give up the position of finance minister to an opposition party, for instance. Its policies will also dominate the coalition’s list of priorities, pointing to broad continuity.From investors’ point of view, policy matters most, not politics. Politicians say a lot of things; it is what they do that matters, particularly when it comes to the economy.

To put it differently, countries can perhaps afford reckless policies when debt levels are low, but when they are high, the market keeps you on a short leash. In 2015, then president Jacob Zuma fired his finance minister for nefarious reasons. The resultant crash in the rand and government bonds is what ultimately forced him to reverse course. It also turned out to be the beginning of the end of his presidency.Long-term interest rates will probably only start trending lower relative to peer countries once there is evidence that fiscal discipline and growth-enhancing reforms are bearing fruit.

The fifth area where much more needs to be done before one can be optimistic is the poor performance of many local governments.But this is also where ordinary people can get most involved and make a difference in their communities. There are many tales of municipal dysfunction, but also examples of community organisations doing stellar work to counter this.In this vein, it is worth pondering whether democracy has been good for economic growth.

But democracy ultimately is the best safeguard against arbitrary and destructive decision-making on the part of government. An abusive government is usually more dangerous than a neglectful one, and in a democracy, there are safeguards against that. It is no surprise today that democracies are, on average, richer than autocracies.

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