Malawi's President elect Lazarus Chakwera and First Lady Monica Chakwera , leaves his inauguration at the Kamuzu Baracks, the Malawi Defence Force Headquarters, in Lilongwe on July 6 2020. Picture: AFP/AMOS GUMULIRA
With the spectacular economic success of China and other Asian Tigers, export-led manufacturing has come to be seen as the model for rapid growth and development. And Cilliers notes that Africa had a large average agricultural trade deficit of about $100bn in 2018, which was expected to rise to more than $330bn-plus by 2030.
And so he proposes a different approach to agriculture: for African countries to return to basics; to support their smallholder, subsistence farmers so they can grow staple indigenous food crops such as cassava, cowpea and yam mainly for domestic consumption, using traditional farming methods, rather than cash crops, with “sophisticated” methods.
And so he models an “agricultural revolution” scenario in which African governments would intervene by boosting average crop yields from the current 3.7 tonnes/ha to 5.5 tonnes/ha in 2030 and 6.2 tonnes/ha in 2040; increasing the area of land under cultivation by crops and the land under irrigation each by 10% between 2020 and 2030; and cutting post-harvest losses by 15%.
he grounds the current state of agriculture in historical and geophysical realities — which includes Cilliers’s assessment of Africa’s generally poor soil and its experience of both Arab and European slavery as major inhibitors of agricultural development.
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