Gauteng has outperformed the national government across the board, and has achieved some important policy successes – for example, it implemented a world-renowned school intervention programme in townships and achieved the highest matric pass rate in the country in 2018.
But few have considered what a loss of the ANC’s majority would mean for Gauteng after 8 May. If the ANC’s share is reduced below 50%, no party will win a majority in the provincial legislature. In this case, only three options are possible – and none of them bodes well for the future of the province.
Alternatively, the ANC could continue as a minority government, in the absence of a formal coalition arrangement. This would risk even greater uncertainty, as each provincial budget would have to be passed with the ad-hoc support of other parties, again distracting attention from the work of government and allowing smaller parties to hold the Premier to ransom.
The more likely outcome, however, is that none of the three major parties can assume power without a coalition. The danger of this is obvious: the EFF in Gauteng will become a kingmaker.
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