REUTERS/Dado Ruvic
Up until the second quarter of 2021, the trade, accommodation and catering industry was the second-worst performing industry in the domestic economy, with overall economic activity in this industry almost 20% below the levels seen in the fourth quarter of 2019. Only the construction industry in the domestic economy fared worse.
Before the Omicron variant, we expected growth to average 5.1% y/y in 2021 and 2.0% y/y in 2022; this may now be marginally lower. Arguably the impact on employment could be greater than the impact on growth because of the seasonal timing and the industries worst affected by this. From a fiscal perspective, this may also necessitate the extension of the Covid-19 social grant beyond the current deadline of March 2022.
But as pointed out, it may not be until the end of January that we see some return to normality as far as travel restrictions are concerned.
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