Oil is retreating but unlikely to repeat the collapses of 2020, 2014 or 2008

Crude oil has been under pressure over the past four weeks but has been gaining support on the decline to $77 per barrel WTI and $82 per barrel Brent since the beginning of the month. The price has been consolidating in roughly the same area for over a month since the second half of February. Then, there was a prolonged pause in growth to overcome the 200-day average. Now, it could be a pause before a further plunge.

Also, the latest consolidation area roughly coincides with the support of the ascending corridor that has been in force for the past five months. A new downside momentum would be a formal prologue to break the uptrend with a potential downside target at $75 for WTI and around $79 for Brent. Near these levels lies the 200-week moving average, a dip below which has intensified discussions on production cuts, resulting in an upward reversal of prices.

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