Nigeria: Oligarchs, Oil and Obi-Dients - the Battle for the Soul of Nigeria

The end of the oil-fuelled patronage system may pose the greatest threat to the nation since the Civil War. Therein may lie its salvation., but also to that of the continent, and to an extent the world. It will be taken as a sign of whether democracy is advancing or retreating. As Africa's biggest democracy with some 93 million potential voters - even if turnout has hitherto been well under 50% - Nigeria will be seen as a weathervane for the world at large.

After the first three decades, major political reforms created a system that established a compromise between competing political forces. The division of the country into 36 states with considerable powers and resources reflected the diversity of the country and the need to devolve political authority to a more local level.

Secondly, there is no longer enough money trickling down. Oil revenues have stagnated, partly because the political class, in deference to vested interests, failed for years to agree rules that encouraged investment, and partly because of endemic oil bunkering.

The failure of the current political model is reflected in changing attitudes and actions. The EndSARS movement captured the imagination of the young, protesting against the abuses of the security forces. Corruption which was once tolerated has now become intolerable. And in the face of pervasive insecurity more citizens are taking up arms to defend themselves, seen in the growth of vigilante groups and militias in the Middle Belt and elsewhere.

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