We are in a period of elevated prices and food is at the core of these increases. For example, in May 2022, South Africa’s consumer food price inflation accelerated to 7.8% year-on-year from 6.3% in the previous month. This is the quickest pace since March 2017. The increase was based on all food products in the inflation basket. This largely mirrors the uptick we have been seeing in the global agricultural commodity prices and, indeed, the domestic market.
In fact, for the grain-related and vegetable oils products, we will likely see a continuous mild uptick in the coming month or two, which could push up mildly the headline food consumer price inflation number further.began and disrupted the global grains market, the global agricultural commodity prices have increased significantly, with the FAO’s Global Food Price Index in May averaging 157 points, which is up 22% y/y, coming from a record high seen in March.
SA, which is interlined to global agricultural markets, has also experienced increased agricultural commodity prices. The result of these developments is the recent uptick in the cereals and oil and fat products prices in the consumer food price inflation basket. These could remain elevated, in line with our expectations of global agricultural commodity prices.
Conversely, there are fears of a potential increase in poultry product prices, which could lessen the benefit of softer red meat prices.
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