Morgan Stanley said on Wednesday that Ukraine‘s economy could slump as much as 60% year-on-year in 2022 in case of a “more prolonged conflict with no clear resolution” following Russia’s invasion. The bank considers this would be the worst-case scenario, which included Ukraine losing access to the Black Sea in the south. The bank’s base case scenario is a 39% GDP contraction in 2022, factoring a prolonged conflict “with fading intensity.
” “While the external balance deterioration should be limited due to a major imports drop, fiscal and more broadly funding needs are a major challenge,” wrote Morgan Stanley economists in a note. Ukraine‘s sovereign international bonds are currently pricing in a “light” debt restructuring with “all payments cleared until 2026 yet no haircut, at a conservative exit yield of 14%”, the note added.
MorganStanley Duh!
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