Models underestimated shockwave from Tonga eruption

People clean debris following volcanic eruption and tsunami, in Nuku'alofa, Tonga, in this picture obtained from social media, January 20 2022. Picture: MARIAN KUPU/BROADCOM BROADCASTIN/REUTERS

“The trans-Pacific and global waves arrived earlier than forecast, which terrible for distant shorelines,” said civil engineer Hermann Fritz at Georgia Tech University, who studies tsunamis. But for faraway Peru, for example, the lack of accurate information may have contributed to the death of two people who drowned in unusually high waves, as well as the catastrophic oil spill from a ship near La Pampilla refinery.For example, the underwater volcano known as Kick’em Jenny is thought to pose only a regional tsunami risk to the neighbouring Caribbean island of Grenada.

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Hawaii initially warned of dangerous waves within 1,000km of the Tonga eruption. However, their bulletin noted that “due to the volcano source we cannot predict tsunami amplitudes nor how far the tsunami hazard may extend.” Roughly 10 hours later, the warning was updated to include a possible threat to Peru — a surprising development given that the tsunami near Tonga was relatively small.

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