Military posturing, vaccine politics — are Taiwan and China entering new phase of perfect storm?

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For years, Western and Chinese analysts have worried that confrontation over Taiwan could spark war in the coming decades. Now, it appears that scenario may be rather close

London — As Nato and G7 leaders met to discuss a tougher line on China this week, Taiwan — swiftly emerging as the most serious likely flashpoint — was entering a new phase of its perfect storm with the mainland.

Tensions are clearly rising — from the USS Ronald Reagan carrier battle group just arriving in the South China Sea to Chinese dredgers encroaching into Taiwanese waters. Both Beijing and Washington are looking to unambiguously demonstrate their seriousness in planning for any future conflict, neither really knowing how genuine or committed the other truly is.

Speaking at a confirmation hearing on Tuesday, incoming top US Asia diplomat Daniel Kritenbrink said Washington should increase support for Taiwan in every area of relations. Beijing was already furious over a visit by a Congressional delegation to Taiwan earlier this month, transported in a US military cargo plane, and this appears to signal more activity.

As much as tackling Covid-19, however, the confrontation over vaccines is a proxy for something much larger — the posturing between Beijing and Taiwan’s Western and Asian allies over what would happen were China to invade.

 

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