Despite investor sentiment towards SA being fairly pessimistic, the outlook for real returns from both SA equities and bonds is still favourableSince last year’s global market crash sparked by Covid-19, most financial markets have recovered strongly, including SA’s. Many investors justifiably now question the return prospects going forward, and whether these gains can be sustained, especially in light of July’s social unrest.
Based on consensus forward earnings expectations the JSE now trades at only a nine times forward price-earnings ratio compared to its historic average of 12.5 times. Viewed from a price-book perspective the SA market stands on 1.7 times compared with the world’s 3.2 times. This differential is the widest since before the global dot-com bust of the early 2000s. In that instance SA equities subsequently went on to handsomely outperform the rest of the world.
Looking at more locally focused companies, SA banks feature prominently in our funds, including Standard Bank, Absa, Investec and First Rand. Banks are well capitalised and did not report losses resulting from the pandemic or engage in aggressive lending practices for a long time before that. They are well on their way to recovering their historic levels of profitability and have restarted paying dividends.
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