The latest gross domestic product numbers show South Africa ducked a self-induced technical recession, but there is pessimism that it will not last. The South African economy beat market expectations by rebounding in the third quarter with real GDP restored to above pre-pandemic levels.
Research group, Oxford Economics Africa says this outcome far exceeded its expectations and also trumped the consensus forecast of 0.6% for quarter-on-quarter growth. “It appears that the economic impact of intense load shedding during that quarter was less severe than anticipated, as the backward-looking data also shows that real GDP rose by a staggering 4.1% compared to the third quarter of 2021.
“The primary sector drove growth to a large extent, particularly in agriculture, while increased mining production also contributed. Within the secondary sector, which also grew, construction and manufacturing were the main drivers, although electricity segments detracted slightly. The tertiary sector showed modest growth, driven mainly by transport and finance-related business activity, while personal services activity contracted.
Carmen Nel, economist and macro strategist at Matrix Fund Managers, also says the upside surprise was largely due to a strong expansion in agriculture amid another bumper harvest across various grains.
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