It’s all about ‘what comes next’ for South Africa

Election polls consistently show the governing African National Conference will lose its majority in the May 2024 vote – but markets are feeling jittery about what will happen next.

“When second choices are taken into account, an ANC/DA coalition is seen as very favorable,” she said. The SRF poll in April pointed to the ANC only managing to secure 37% of the vote on a 66% turnout, increasing slightly to 38% at a 60% turnout. Alarmingly, only 50% of the survey respondents said they would definitely vote. Voter turnout has been declining with every election.

However, if things swing into the extremes with the ANC and EFF teaming up, or even with the Zuma-headed MK Party in the mix, investment and economic sentiment could sour.

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