As General Awad Ibn Ouf declared the removal of President Omar al-Bashir from office on 11 April, the streets of Khartoum burst into celebration. It was hard to imagine that the Sudanese Army and security forces would give way to unarmed civilians calling for an end to al-Bashir’s rule. These forces had been the main pillar on which he built his power base. Yet they did.
In a religiously conservative society such as Sudan, the central role of women in the push for change also defied all expectations and brought to the fore the extent of national discontent. Second, the 6 April protests turned around fissures in the security response as some members of the Sudanese army offered protesters protection against national security forces trying to disperse them. This raises questions regarding the unity of the Sudanese security forces going forward.
Discussions between al-Burhan and some key opposition leaders have begun, indicating a greater level of confidence and potentially the formation of a military-civilian transitional arrangement. But compromises on both sides are needed for Sudan’s sake, given that the change has resulted in new pivotal roles for not just the opposition, but the current military leadership itself.
Yet with such divergent interests and the negative impact the Gulf Cooperation Council crisis has had in other Horn of Africa countries, whether the new military leadership will be able to balance regional geopolitics as skilfully as al-Bashir did is uncertain. There is no indication that the current crop of military leaders has what it takes to resolve the underlying drivers of Sudan’s economic challenges. The deep-rooted nature of the needed economic reforms also necessitates a lengthy process regardless of who is in control. Combined with distrust for military rule, however, achieving true economic reform under such a system seems even trickier.
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