Regional tensions in the Great Lakes are reaching an alarming level, with neighbours Rwanda and Uganda publicly raising the tone over the past few weeks. This is unusual – the two presidents usually prefer to settle their differences behind closed doors.
It’s hard to pinpoint exactly what triggered this deterioration. And both countries know that open war between them would be devastating to their populations, to stability in the Great Lakes, and to economic development in East Africa. Uganda was instrumental in stoking ethnic violence between Hema and Lendu in Ituri province in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in the late-1990s. It then backed all sides in a conflict that killed almost 100 000 people and allowed it to siphon off Congolese resources. Later, both Rwanda and Uganda supported Tutsi-led rebels, who became the M23, in the eastern DRC.
To be effective, a new regional approach to peace and stability must address governance and political instability in all core Great Lakes countries, and relations between them. This won’t be easy. The relationships between heads of state are almost familial, making it hard for external bodies to be accepted as mediators.
Rwanda denies this, but there has been some evidence that it has allowed training to take place in refugee camps on its territory in the past. The East African Community, under Museveni’s leadership, has skirted these issues, focusing instead on trying to mediate Burundi’s internal political crisis.
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