ISS TODAY OP-ED: Wounded ANC equates to uncertain territory for South Africa’s prospects

Ramaphosa is still likely to be re-elected as ANC president this month and even endure an impeachment hearing should things come to that. But he is wounded, and the ANC will suffer at the polls in 2024. With ongoing electricity outages, unprecedented crime levels and a hostile external economic environment, ANC support could fall significantly below the 47% previously expected in our updated forecasts.

Previously the ANC may have been able to govern in alliance with a batch of smaller parties. Given the very different ideological orientations of the two larger opposition parties, the ANC’s choice would be crucial for South Africa’s future — basically one between pursuing wealth redistribution or economic growth.

South Africa has much to lose if the ANC ousts Ramaphosa at its elective conference or as its candidate for national president in 2024. He has doggedly rebuilt the country’s institutions and steadily advanced government reform — such as empowering the National Prosecuting Authority and the Auditor General. These steps will, in time, unlock accountability and are vital for potential investors in Africa who are uncertain where to plant their seed.

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