Boko Haram, particularly under Shekau, has long been interested in expanding its base beyond Nigeria’s north-east. And its north-west and north-central regions are increasingly becoming its areas of choice due to deteriorating security and otherThe group’s interest in these regions, especially the north-west, can be traced to a 2014 internal “Message to Fulanis”. In it, Shekau is seen expressing ‘gratitude’ to fighters in Katsina State and other unspecified locations.
Former fighters who spoke to the ISS said that the constant military operations in Sambisa Forest had in the past made Shekau think of fleeing to the Mandara Mountains. But it would have been impossible to move his armaments without attracting security forces’ attention. Also, the military could cut his supply chains, and his fighters’ morale would be damaged by a move seen as cowardly. This could lead to a revolt and possibly another split.
Bitri fled from government-provided accommodation in Kaduna State, north-west Nigeria, in 2019 while waiting to enrol in the deradicalisation programme. He teamed up with kidnappers in Zaria and Birnin Gwari, a hotbed of criminality in the state, and re-established a link with JAS. Violent extremist groups and criminals often use intelligence gathering in their activities. Security forces must find ways to keep a step ahead. They need to invest more time and resources in the painstaking work of intelligence gathering if they want to unravel the links between extremist and criminal groups and take effective action.
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