October marks the first anniversary of Sudan’s second military coup, which removed the transitional government of prime minister Abdalla Hamdok and triggered a state of emergency. Mediation efforts to overcome the political impasse between the junta and civilian opposition groups have thus far failed to reach a political settlement and negotiated plan for a transition.
Major negotiations are expected to cover the appointment of a civilian-led government, setting the time frame for elections and defining the military’s role in the transition. Although the trilateral mechanism has garnered support from national, regional and international actors, obstacles hinder its success.
According to civilian opposition groups, including the Forces for Freedom and Change and resistance committees, the military supports the gradual return to power of al-Bashir’s National Congress Party . In addition to appointing former NCP members to foreign affairs and intelligence, it’s accused of releasing jailed NCP leaders. Civilian actors subsequently refuse to participate in efforts to mediate between them and the military.
The trilateral mediation team faces the challenge of uniting these actors with sometimes diametrically opposing positions to reach a negotiated plan for a political transition. Despite this, opportunities can be exploited. In July, the military undertook to hand over power to a civilian government and withdraw from the political arena if civilians could reach a negotiated agreement on a transitional plan.
The recommendations from various opposition groups have been reflected in a draft constitutional framework developed by Sudan’s Bar Association. Internal and international pressure has also made military leaders reiterate their willingness to engage in the trilateral process.
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