Mozambique's northernmost province of Cabo Delgado has since 2017 been home to a festering insurgency, linked to Islamic State. Picture: SUPPLIED
Total’s decision came after the Islamist group, known alternatively as Al-Shebaab and the Ahl al-Sunnah wa al Jamma’ah , overran the city of Palma, looted it, and terrorised its inhabitants for 10 days before finally withdrawing. As things now stand, ASJW is unassailable. Mozambique cannot counter it, let alone reverse its ascent, without substantial international help. Its international partners might have to force Mozambique to save itself.
The southwest Indian Ocean is part of increasingly contested space in which major military powers — China, France, India, and Russia — are asserting themselves. Russian mercenaries recently served in Mozambique, and the country has been raising its profile in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean while also reportedly meddling in Madagascar. India has secured basing rights in Mauritius and the Seychelles.
France, through oil and gas major Total, is becoming a leading energy producer from Namibia to Mozambique through SA. President Emmanuel Macron’s visit underlines the region’s growing importance in France’s newly assertive Indo-Pacific policy, which is activated through increased military activity and close security co-operation with a new “Paris-Delhi-Canberra axis”.
The optimal solution would be a slow and largely by-the-book approach to rebuilding the security forces while rolling out whole-of-government measures — in co-ordination with aid organisations — designed to remedy various socioeconomic ills, foster development in Mozambique and otherwise defuse the conflicts that feed the insurgency.
Source: Energy Industry News (energyindustrynews.net)
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