Interest rate pressure ready to burst

Major central banks have all kept interest rates on hold this month, with the South African Reserve Bank expected to follow suit on Wednesday .

This “higher for longer” narrative led to a mixed forecast from economists and analysts, with the more pessimistic among them only penicillin in rate cuts in September 2024. The UK, meanwhile, is in recession, he said, and the BoE is facing mounting pressure to begin to ease policy. Schroders had previously expected international rate cuts to start in March, but this has proven to be “too soon” for the central banks in question.

Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop previously noted that it is highly unlikely that the SARB would start a cutting cycle ahead of the US Fed, for example, as that would weaken the local currency significantly. Because of this influence, the economists said that South Africans need to be patient when anticipating local moves on the interest rate. Moreso because local conditions – with core inflation still over 5% and outside the SARB’s target range – require the central bank to be vigilant.

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