Interest rate hike expected this week

South Africa’s Reserve Bank is expected to raise interest rates to 4% at its Monetary Policy Committee meeting on 27 January as part of an ongoing hiking cycle, a18 of the 23 economists polled said the central bank would add 25 basis points to the repo rate this week, taking it to 4%, while the remaining five said the central bank would leave rates on hold. However, all five economists that expected the central bank to pause on 27 January predicted rates to rise in March.

15 of the 16 economists in a separate Bloomberg survey predict a quarter-point increase and one a 50 basis points hike. Forward-rate agreements starting in one month used to speculate on borrowing costs, show traders are pricing in a more than 100% chance of a quarter-point increase.

“We expect the SARB to hike interest rates thrice by a cumulative 75 basis points in 2022 and a further three times by another 75 basis points in 2023.” “A tempered rise in rental inflation and reduced increases in medical aid tariffs are likely to drive an atypical response in local inflation.” Momentum expects headline inflation to average 4.5% in 2021, 4.6% in 2022, and 4.3% in 2023.

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