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Such an expansion would match 2007 as the best in four decades of data and follow an upwardly revised 3.5% contraction 2020, which would still be the worst peacetime decline since the Great Depression. The IMF projected a 4.2% global expansion for 2022. The US saw one of the biggest upgrades after approving a $900bn relief plan. President Joe Biden is also seeking $1.9-trillion in additional aid. The IMF forecasts the world’s largest economy may grow 5.1% in 2021, vs 3.1% in October.
Overall, advanced economies will see output losses compared with pre-pandemic projections that are relatively smaller than elsewhere thanks to fiscal and monetary policy support and earlier, widespread access to vaccines. For global trade, the IMF sees import and export volumes rising by 8.1% in 2021, slightly less than the 8.3% increase seen in October, after an estimated 9.6% decline in 2020.
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