In parts of Europe, new coronavirus cases have been creeping up again. While this is by no means a second wave, and case numbers are still lower than they were before, an interesting demographic pattern has started to emerge.
Whereas elderly populations had the greatest share of new cases early in the crisis, younger age groups are now taking the lead. People aged between 20 and 39 account for about 35%-40% of new cases in England, Belgium and the Netherlands. In Spain, 15- to 29-year-olds account for more than a fifth of new cases.
While Germany’s age breakdown early in the pandemic looked slightly different, the country is seeing a similar trend now. Globally, data from the World Health Organisation shows the proportion of 15- to 24-year-olds infected with the disease has increased three-fold in the past five months. So, what’s going on? The first possible explanation is increased testing. At the height of the outbreak, only the very sick — who are, more often than not, elderly — were able to get tested, while those with mild symptoms were told to ride out the illness at home without a diagnosis. With more capacity to test and contact-tracing programmes in place, countries are catching milder or asymptomatic cases in younger people that previously went uncounted.
But social-distancing fatigue is also a big factor, especially in age groups that don’t feel at risk. Anyone who’s been near an urban green space or pub recently has seen the signs: huge groups drinking not quite a metre apart; friends sharing a cigarette; hugs and kisses as people meet up for the first time in months. The WHO has even pleaded with the world’s youth “to resist their urge to party”.Register or sign in now.
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