Income is the dominant driver of most asset class returns over the long run. For some asset classes, such as high-yield corporate bonds, the income received can even exceed the total return due to a portion of capital being lost to defaults.
One definition of madness is repeating the same action but expecting a different result. That hasn’t stopped policymakers from believing that looser policy will eventually generate higher growth and inflation. For this strategy to work they now believe low interest rates and quantitative easing will probably be needed for the foreseeable future.
Investors should distinguish between investment oases and investment mirages. In the equity market, the former are more likely to be found in companies with a mix of above-average dividends, supported by excess cash flows, but with lower leverage and higher profitability than their peers, providing dividend resilience, priced at valuations that suggest there is potential for capital upside or at least stability.
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