Hit ratios, win-loss ratios, and shorting

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[LISTEN] The only way for retail investors to compete with/sometimes outperform professional investors is to be patient & more long-term orientated & make fewer decisions: JP Verster of ProteaCM with Ryk_van_Niekerk investing Download the podcast

RYK VAN NIEKERK: Welcome to this week’s edition of the Be A Better Investor podcast. It’s a podcast where I pick the brains of the top professional investors in the country, and we delve into their own personal investment approaches. We also talk about the research processes they follow to identify potential investments, their personal best and worst investments ever, and we also look at what is in their personal asset portfolios.

We actually track both the hit rate and what you call the slugging ratio or the win-loss ratio in the performance of our funds. I can tell you we do that on a periodic basis, so the last time we did it was for 2021, and my long-term returns are slightly different. I’ll get to that. So firstly, our hit ratio – which means when we make a decision, when do we make money versus when do we lose money – was around 60% for 2021. Over the long term, that’s the average as well for the business.

I would say that in percentage terms that was one of them. The other one that comes to mind is in the property market. The SA property market did very well for a decade from roughly 2005 to 2015. I bought quite significant property exposure around 2012 and I held it until about 2015. In those three to four years, the property shares that I bought increased a few multiples. They were more related to Eastern Europe than South Africa.

That was early in my career, a share called Alliance Mining Supplies. I effectively lost all my money because the share was suspended, so it effectively went to zero. The interesting thing about Alliance Mining is that there was fraud that happened within the company. There were a few red flags, but I was a bit naïve about those red flags. One of the worst red flags was that the financial director of Alliance Mining was not a full-time financial director.

Source: News Formal (newsformal.com)

 

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