Get ready for an August peak in stock prices

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Cycle theory has a pretty good track record in calling out the tops and bottoms. These are indeed strange times.

The coronavirus crash and rebound have stumped many professional fund managers, with some suggesting it is the so-called Robinhood investors gorging themselves on whacked-out travel, cruise ship and entertainment stocks.

“If any trend emerges from this data forced upon us by the Esma, it is that brokers should race to build up a client base which is better informed,” says Finance Magnates. “The number of additional tools and tools that actually work and provide insight will be crucial.” The number of US stocks going up versus those going down peaked in January this year, then started to shift lower – a key tell that prices were going to follow. This so-called advance-decline line has since roared back up to where it was in January, with prices following suit.

For example, the S&P 500 has been observed to have two particularly strong cycles, the longer one being 170 trading days, the shorter one 26 days. The 170-day cycle bottomed in mid-April 2020 and is expected to peak in early August. The same is true of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.“These are like headwinds or tailwinds for a trader. You still need a proper trading set-up, trigger and follow-through.

 

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