Gauteng: Too close to call for ANC

Vastly different views emerged this week on the ANC’s performance in Gauteng. The party’s own research places its support at 56%, while the Democratic Alliance’s polling shows that the governing party faces an outright loss of the province, at 44%.

It is understood that the ANC research shows that the black middle class, older voters, division in the ANC, perceptions about corruption and general disappointment are all factors that could influence the outcome of the poll. These divisions are understood to have played themselves out along the campaign trail, with the party leagues such as the ANC Youth League and the ANC Women’s League divided in the way they contributed to the campaign. Although the youth league nationally has been glaringly absent, the women’s league, particularly its youth desk, has been active.

DA chief executive Jonathan Moakes, referring to the DA’s research, says the situation remains “very, very fluid”. His assessment is that the elections are too close to call and a more useful analysis is to look at voting trends over the past 15 years. If one does this, the ANC is in more trouble than its own research indicates, he says.

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