From pandemic to endemic: Covid forecast for 2022

Spain threw out the idea this week, when Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said it’s time to think about new ways of living with Covid long term, such as the world does with the flu. Other countries jumped in, saying they may be moving toward a new chapter of the disease.

“We probably are starting to see a transition phase toward this becoming an endemic disease, which doesn’t mean that we have to stop being very prudent,” Spain’s deputy prime minister, Nadia Calvino, told Bloomberg Television. The term sometimes means a disease is limited to a specific region, but that doesn’t have to be the case with Covid, just as the flu regularly crisscrosses the globe. Seasonal patterns can happen, too, with higher cases in winter, as well as local outbreaks above the expected norm.

Such evidence is “encouraging in some ways, but we have to stay very vigilant,” said Noubar Afeyan, co-founder of Moderna Inc. Uncontrolled spread of Covid would therefore lead to too many otherwise avoidable deaths, Health Minister Karl Lauterbach said Friday. “There is still no reason to sound the all-clear,” he said.

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