Is Cyril Ramaphosa winning or losing? This is the burning question of the day. And because it is generally a time of great anxiety and growing uncertainty, here and throughout the world, the fear that he might be losing is adding further angst to an already febrile atmosphere.
Thus, the starting point for any assessment of Ramaphosa’s prospects is to note a certain political reality: that he is probably as powerful now as he has ever been and as powerful as he ever will be. In the past year he has begun to rebuild state institutions — with remarkable speed and effect, whether it be the quartet of commissions of inquiry, the appointment of an independent national director of public prosecutions or a competent South African Revenue Service commissioner — a necessary though not sufficient platform for reform and revival.
It is understandable that, as one friendly member of the investment bank community said to me afterwards, you have to have something to “hang your hat on”. And, for some people’s taste, there was not enough of a perch. It was deemed to be too vague or dreamy. Regrettably, at that point we stumble once again over the detritus of the Zuma era. Some of the most malignant members of the state capture network not only wriggled their way back into Parliament but now find themselves appointed to chair parliamentary committees.
And so it undermines confidence that the president is sufficiently in control and distracts from his attempt to set a new strategic course. And raises a serious doubt as to whether he can get the parliamentary caucus to do what they need to do in terms of their constitutional obligation to investigate and then remove public protector Busisiwe Mkhwebane from office — essential if she is not to dog him for the next four years.
In Thabo Mbeki’s time, only three people were allowed to speak publicly about such matters: the president, the minister of finance and the governor of the Reserve Bank. Now, economic policy is a plaything in the factional warfare in the ANC, making Ramaphosa’s mission impossible even harder.
Source: Financial Digest (financialdigest.net)
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