Sydney — Australia’s record run without a technical recession — defined locally as two consecutive quarters of contraction — has a slim chance of continuing in what would be another dramatic escape for the world’s longest economic growth streak.
While the second quarter will undoubtedly be ugly as businesses shut down and tens of thousands lost their jobs, government support packages and success in curbing the pandemic are raising hopes for a third quarter rebound. The key issue is whether the worst data is confined to the present quarter after Australia closed pubs, restaurants and casinos on March 23, then broadened the restrictions to all nonessential services from the next day.
The release of these other partial indicators in the run-up to first-quarter GDP on Wednesday, June 3, will give economists a clearer idea. As to broader influences, the drag on the economy from weak residential construction will persist, while the anticipated expansion of the mining industry will be under a cloud. BHP has said capital expenditure in the year to June 30 2021, will be lower than previously planned.As Australians saw in the New Year, wildfires engulfed large swathes of the east coast, forcing the government to deploy military aircraft and ships to help evacuate stranded holidaymakers.
Inventories “are very hard to forecast,” said David Plank, head of Australian economics at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group. “So while we will get a lift to GDP from the sales of groceries, albeit smaller than we thought, we may get an offset to GDP from a decline in stocks.
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