Europe must ‘re-assess the reality of what Nato is’, Emmanuel Macron says

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France and Germany would like to see Europe take more of its defence planning into its own hands, and do not necessarily see Nato as the only effective way of doing so

Since US President Donald Trump entered the White House in 2017, Nato summits have often proved diplomatically messy events. This year’s gathering in December in London could be the most volatile of the lot — taking place not just against the backdrop of unpredictable looming British and US elections, but now open questioning of the alliance’s future by French President Emmanuel Macron.

Exactly what he meant by that comment is very far from clear — in many respects, Nato has found new energy since Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, dramatically ratcheting up exercises and multinational deployments, particularly in Eastern Europe. What is apparent, however, is that France and to a lesser extent Germany would like to see Europe take more of its defence planning into its own hands, and do not necessarily see Nato as the only effective way of doing so.

In January, France and Germany signed an updated military co-operation treaty that guaranteed each would come to the other's defence and set out further steps to military co-operation, culminating in what would effectively be a joint army. That prompted angry tweets from Trump — which seems to have only cemented the Franco-German view that other, simpler structures that do not involve Washington are necessary.

Tying together the diplomatic resources of London, Paris and Berlin makes sense. Alone, none of the three can match the clout of the US or China, whereas together they make a much more formidable force. That doesn't mean, however, that significant differences of agreement won't often remain. That could become even more the case in an era of mounting populism, with the real if still remote possibility the far right could win presidential elections in France in 2022.

 

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