In 2014 the Mpumalanga ANC under David Mabuza aimed to sweep the boards by winning no less than 90% of the vote.Three years earlier, the ANC had suffered a major blow when disgruntled comrades in Bohlabela splintered to form the Bushbuckridge Residents’ Association .
With the two opposition parties cumulatively at 41% in the last elections, it is clear that if they pull up their socks this time around, they will give the ANC a run for its money, dislodging it through a coalition.An Institute of Race Relations poll said the ANC was at about 41%, but the party has dismissed this as a small, unrepresentative poll.
The ANC’s last hope is pinned on the goodwill of voters, hoping they will rescue it from the intensive care unit out of loyalty to the brand. This time around former Cabinet spokesperson Mzwanele Manyi’s African Transformation Movement is suspected of being a sleeper party for the supporters of Supra Mahumapelo and former president Jacob Zuma in an alleged bid to undermine Ramaphosa.
Part of the IFP’s decline in the province came from infighting in the party which saw the formation of a breakaway, the National Freedom Party, which secured 7% of the provincial vote in 2014. The coming together of three growing opposition parties may lead to a provincial coalition government in what has become a traditional stronghold of the ANC.– For the first time since the DA snatched the Western Cape from the ANC in 2009, the party is staring down the barrel of a gun, facing the prospects of losing the province or suffering an embarrassing decline.
The infighting came to a head when former Cape Town mayor Patricia de Lille left the party and started the Good Party. She remains popular in some parts of the Cape metro. Some ANC provincial leaders admitted last week that the party’s strength was now only in the villages, where many people, particularly older people, still see the ANC as the party that liberated them from apartheid.
DA premier candidate Andrew Louw said: “We are looking at reducing the ANC’s 64% to just less than 50% so that negotiations on a coalition government can begin.” But the record, in the back yard of many ANC luminaries, such as Nelson Mandela, did not help the party much two years later in the 2016 municipal elections when it lost Nelson Mandela Bay metro.
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