During a webinar last week, Ninety One global strategist Michael Power brought up the possibility of China shortly overtaking the US as the world’s largest economy. That might happen if the predictions of US GDP contracting by more than 30% in the second quarter come to pass. Even without that, there’s no doubt that China will stand out for its impressive recovery at a time when much of the world is enduring the worst economic slump in a century.
The world is much changed now and a growth rate in the region of 2.5% will probably make China stand out as the only G20 country with a positive GDP outcome for 2020, Power said. That should normally be something for other economies that export to China, such as SA, to celebrate. Overall, China decoupling from a global depression will be good for SA and offset some of the collapse in demand from elsewhere and boost companies such as Anglo American’s Kumba.
The US, which sees Huawei as an arm of the Chinese government, is pressing other European nations to follow the UK’s example and exclude the company from their networks. ThatHuawei has been involved in any espionage on behalf of the Chinese state is almost irrelevant.
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