Data this week will give an indication of SA’s first-quarter economic performance, with analysts expecting further contraction in the energy-intensive mining and manufacturing sectors during January.
The numbers for the first month of the first quarter come after data last week showed that SA slipped into a technical recession in the last quarter of 2019. FNB chief economist Mamello Matikinca-Ngwenya expects mining to show a year-on-year decline in January, even though gold production surged in December, albeit off a low base.
The gauge is expected to remain at depressed levels due to recessionary conditions in the economy, the prospect of load-shedding continuing into 2021, ongoing policy uncertainty and the perceived slow progress of structural reforms, said Investec economist Kamilla Kaplan. “Low levels of business confidence will continue to manifest in subdued private investment and job creation rates,” she said.
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