ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: Little hope of retail sales improving

Claire BissekerDespite better-than-expected industrial and mining data last week, there is little optimism that retail sales data due out this week will also surprise on the upside and be strong enough to prevent the economy from having contracted in the first quarter.

Investec economist Kamilla Kaplan expects the unemployment rate to worsen to 27.5% in the first quarter of 2019 as unemployment typically rises at the start of the year as temporary employees hired over the festive season are laid off. Most economists expect retail sales growth to have soften marginally in March from 1.1% year-on-year in February and 1.2% to 1.1% year-on-year in January on the back of weak domestic demand, slightly higher inflation and constrained wage growth.increase in the petrol price in March as well as slightly higher inflation, which would have eroded their real disposable income growth.

Mining and manufacturing activity figures for March were better than expected, but on a quarterly seasonally adjusted and annualised rate, which aligns with the way GDP is measured, output in both sectors fell.

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