ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: Agribusiness Confidence Index dips in second quarter, but green shoots emerge

Agbiz said the latest fall in sentiment “is on the back of a range of factors, including rising input costs, biosecurity concerns, hikes in interest rates, intensified geopolitical risks, as well as ongoing weakness in municipal service delivery and network industries”.

At the same time, rising interest rates are being felt out on the platteland because commercial farmers borrow a lot. Biosecurity concerns include vaccine shortages and outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease.And the “ongoing weakness in municipal service delivery” refers to the collapse of local government, resulting in potholes that can even stop a Hilux in its tracks … and that sort of thing.

The general economic conditions index fell 5 points to 43. Basically, the economic outlook remains grim and there are signs aplenty that domestic economic growth has slowed significantly this quarter. This is indeed a good sign. South African commercial agriculture is very high-tech and capital intensive – there is a reason farmers go to the bank. And they are clearly investing in equipment such as tractors.

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