Two ill winds of change are blowing in the global economy that do not bode well for the emerging market economic outlook in 2022.
In 2021, while the Covid-19 pandemic was still adversely affecting their economies, emerging markets enjoyed a favourable external economic environment. With US inflation having now surged to a 40-year high of more than 7%, the days of ultra-easy global liquidity would seem to be coming to an end. Indeed, at its last meeting, the Fed announced it would end its aggressive bond-buying programme in March. It will be doing so with a view to paving the way for a series of interest rate hikes to allow the Fed to regain control over inflation.
Unfortunately for the emerging market economies, the prospective slowing in the US economy will be occurring at the very time that China is now experiencing acute problems in its property sector. This would especially be the case while President Xi Jinping’s common prosperity programme appears to be reversing many of Deng Xiaoping’s economic reforms that laid the basis for the Chinese economic miracle.
Source: Financial Digest (financialdigest.net)
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