Is this a second Arab – and perhaps also more widely African – Spring we are seeing? And if so, will it end better than the bitter winter rather than glorious summer which succeeded the first one in 2011?
Writing for London’s Chatham House, he described the mass Sudanese street demonstrations, which began in December 2018 as protests against a steep increase in the bread price were beginning to flag and then drew strength from the perhaps even larger demonstrations against Bouteflika which began in Algeria in February.
In Sudan, similarly, the protesters have maintained unrelenting pressure on the authorities, first forcing the military to oust and arrest Bashir on April 11, then a day later forcing his interim replacement Defence Minister General Awad ibn Auf also to resign, along with the detested and feared intelligence chief Salah Gosh
All this means that where and how both the Algerian and Sudanese transitions go from here remains uncertain. Under continuing pressure, the military did eventually allow democratic elections, but when the Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohamed Morsi won those, it didn’t take long for the military to step back in, removing him in a coup, though portrayed by the generals as another popular uprising.
That was much more clearly so in Egypt, Algeria and Sudan. And so it’s still not clear if the Algerian and Sudanese militaries, the ultimate arbiters of power, will really surrender control completely, or rather just manoeuvre as adroitly as they can around the protests, conceding just enough power, or the semblance of power, not to lose their grip.
On the plus side, he believes the 2019 protesters have the advantage of having learned from the mistakes of the 2011 generation. Ironically, one of those mistakes precisely may have been international intervention, though this was not always under the control of the local democratic activists., has listed some other lessons which the 2019 street has learned from its 2011 predecessors.
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