Covid-19’s dark cloud has silver linings for sub-Saharan Africa

A Zimbabwean health worker during a training exercise aimed at preparing workers to deal with any potential coronavirus cases. Picture: REUTERS/PHILIMON BULAWAYO

Everyday life in the region is precarious. More than 400-million people live on less than $1.90 a day. The continent’s economies are highly dependent on global value chains, which accounted for about 80% of world trade in 2017. Global merchandise trade is projected to plummet by an estimated 13%-32% in 2020. Informal trade has also been heavily curtailed, placing subsistence livelihoods at risk.

The fact that China’s economy is slowing and is less hungry for natural resources from the continent is arguably a blessing in disguise. The country’s move towards increased consumption and an orientation away from export-led manufacturing was already in motion before lockdown, and this forces African policymakers to think about how to become less resource dependent.

Low oil prices for the foreseeable future considerably weaken this power. Future economic recovery for oil-abundant countries will depend on creating institutions that allocate secure property rights to all citizens, which decreases oil dependence and incentivises broad-based taxable revenue generation. This reconstructs the citizen-state accountability link and equips citizens with growing power to demand clean governance.

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