Covid-19 death estimate rises to 17,000 — four times the official number

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The number of excess deaths from natural causes has risen to 17,090, according to Medical Research Council analysts.

Workmen at Honingnestkrans cemetery in Tshwane prepare graves for Covid-19 burials. The pandemic has probably claimed four times more lives in SA - directly or indirectly - than health department statistics indicate, says the SA Medical Research Council.The number of excess deaths from natural causes has risen to 17,090, according to SA Medical Research Council analysts.

The number of excess natural deaths by province and metro. In each case, the period has been determined based on when an upturn in the number of natural deaths became apparent.“Compared with the predicted number of natural deaths from historical data in the week ending July 14, the Eastern Cape had 116% more, Gauteng had 117% more, the Western Cape had 57% more and KwaZulu-Natal had 49% more.

Excess deaths reported by the council include those directly attributable to Covid-19 and those that occurred from other natural causes that could not be treated or prevented because people were afraid to seek care, or because there were constraints on health services. However, the council said it had used a lower baseline for comparison than the historical average to take account of the marked decline in deaths observed before Covid-19 fatalities were significant.

 

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