China’s recovery may have peaked

China’s economic recovery could be past its peak and beginning to stabilise as the year draws to a close, with a key manufacturing gauge moderating in December after an export-fuelled boost to production.

“It’s a gradual plateauing,” said Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at TS Lombard. “We have passed the peak of the strong recovery, as suggested by exports and industrial shortages. I think the PMI from here might be peaking as the credit growth is peaking out.” With the coronavirus pandemic largely under control, economists forecast China is on track to be the only major economy to grow in 2020 with an expansion of about 2%. Beijing has signalled a gradual withdrawal of the fiscal and credit stimulus it provided this year, while vowing there would be no “sharp turns” in policy support.

A set of early indicators showed China’s economic recovery continuing in December, underpinned by strong demand for exports, rising commodity prices and a rallying stock market.

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