China’s population contraction means no more cheap labour for the rest of the world

China’s slowest population growth in decades may be felt more acutely beyond its borders than within them. The economy will keep humming and incomes can continue to climb, albeit at a slower rate. The rest of us, however, will need to adjust to a persistently slacker pace of global expansion and the prospective ebbing of deflationary pressure.

While it’s possible that China’s headcount will actually decline in a few years, that doesn’t mean a crisis is looming. China need not fear for its commercial viability just because this inevitable byproduct of progress has caught up with it. After all, it’s a relatively common pattern of economic development: living standards rise, people spend more time in school, get married later, wrestle with more expensive living costs and want to spend more on the children they do have.

The consequences for the rest of the planet may be more significant. The world’s economic output has been driven by China the past few decades, especially since the financial crisis of 2007-2009. Its GDP has increased at an average annual rate of about 8% since 2000. The equivalent figure for the US has been a bit less than 2%.

In the process, the country was a major force in holding down prices of goods destined for shelves in the US and Europe.

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