Many are expecting too much of the IMF, while others fret about losing economic sovereignty. Meanwhile, the life prospects of millions of South Africans are being unnecessarily downgraded to chronic destitution. Talk of national unity is farcical if the pandemic and looming credit crisis can’t inspire a reality-grounded national dialogue.
Analytical rigour is unattainable without the discipline of objectively interrogating core assumptions. We are ignoring 21st century economic development fundamentals and allowing economic debates to be framed by political posturing. We must dare to follow the analysis wherever it takes us and learn whatever we need to learn.
Anchoring policies in race, inequality and redistribution precludes sustained high growth, which is only possible through greater global integration that requires prioritising competitiveness and adding value. Our prospective growth bursts rely on a commodity cycle whose long-term outlook dims as innovations spur ghost town effects, threatening resource focused economies.
Quantitative tools reveal conclusively that our society’s inequality cannot be remedied through redistribution. Evidence-based analysis reveals that our core challenges are unemployment and poverty. Notwithstanding our collectively dismissing economic development basics, experience should have taught us that prioritising redistribution increases poverty, unemployment and inequality.
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