This is the worst-case scenario that could occur if the highly fragmented health system – characterised by inequality and polarisation between the public and private healthcare sectors, and distrust between key industry players – persists.
The scenarios were presented as government continues with preparations to implement the National Health Insurance scheme. Scenario strategist Chantell Ilbury said the 2030 timeline was chosen for each of the four situations because it pointed to a future where technology and artificial intelligence might have taken over, yet was a close enough date to understand what changes needed to be made currently.
“If you contextualise the state sector ... healthcare is declining and it has also become a political imperative. These are some of the reasons for implementing NHI.” She concluded by challenging the private sector stakeholders to move towards a “win-win” situation for all South Africans.The doctor is on the ball, the treatment is solid and the patient follows the doctor’s guidance.
A protectionist mind-set puts stumbling blocks in the path of the clear developmental initiatives that government provides.
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